I recently finished reading my initial book of the new year, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Though it is still early, I’m willing to bet that this may be the most interesting book I read all year, despite being the first.
As summarized by the front flap of the dust jacket,
A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
That last point that is most vicious. Human nature drives us to simplify, categorize, and explain, which in turn exposes us to further Black Swan events in the future. The book examines this flawed method of thinking through analysis of psychology, history, economics, mathematics, and other literary and scientific areas of study.
Its point is made primarily through anecdotal evidence and narrative story telling, a technique that is almost necessitated by the topic at hand. Anyone seeking hard science is likely to walk away disappointed and unconvinced. However, those very same people stand to gain the most from reading The Black Swan with an open mind.
After driving home the central thesis of his book, Mr. Taleb offers a brief chapter of advice on how to operate in a world filled with uncertainty. The reading is not light, and can be challenging at times, but it is very rewarding and promotes a different, yet insightful, perspective.
